“We’re actually heading for a 10C global mean temperature increase in the coming decade or two. Probably much sooner.”
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“A TEMPERATURE RISE OF MORE THAN 18°C BY 2026?
Eastern Tiger swallowtail (Papilio glaucus)
Ice Age National Scientific Reserve Unit, Wisconsin, USA
2017 7/22 343aaa
On July 1, 2021 pm, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1935 ppb at 293 mb. This mean methane level translates into 387 ppm CO₂e at a 1-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200.
This GWP is appropriate in the light of the danger of a huge burst of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which would, due to the abrupt nature of such an eruption, make its impact felt instantaneously.
Carbon dioxide on July 1, 2021, was 418.33 ppm. Together, this CO₂e level of methane and this carbon dioxide level add up to 805.33 ppm CO₂e, which is 394.67 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point which on its own could increase the temperature rise by a further 8°C.
This 394.67 ppm CO₂e, again at a 1-year GWP of 200, translates into 1973 ppb of methane. In other words, a methane burst of 1973 ppb or about 5 Gt of methane would suffice to trigger the clouds feedback.
A 5 Gt seafloor methane burst would double methane in the atmosphere and could instantly raise the CO₂e level to 1200 ppm and trigger the clouds feedback (top right panel of above chart).
Even with far less methane, levels of further pollutants could rise within years and feedbacks could start kicking in with much greater ferocity, while the resulting extreme weather events would cause sulfate cooling to end, and as a result an 18.44°C temperature rise could occur as early as by 2026 (left panel of above chart).
Meanwhile, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise while a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth.
As the bottom figure in the bar on the left of above chart shows and as discussed in an earlier post, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to 2020 may well be as large as 2.29°C. Meanwhile, the IPCC plans to release its next report, the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), on August 9, 2021, in the lead up to the COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference, from October 31 to November 12, 2021 in Glasgow, UK. Given their track record, the IPCC and politicians will probably refuse to consider the above information.
From the post 'A Temperature Rise Of More Than 18 Degrees Celsius By 2026?', at:”
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The US Supreme Court will protect Planet Killers: Barrett, Kavanaugh, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Roberts.
“their own scientists whose warnings were explicit and often dire.
In 1979, an Exxon study said that burning fossil fuels “will cause dramatic environmental effects” in the coming decades.
“The potential problem is great and urgent,” it concluded.”
“Big oil and gas kept a dirty secret for decades. Now they may pay the price
Communities are now demanding the oil conglomerates pay damages and take urgent action to reduce further harm from burning fossil fuels.
Communities are now demanding the oil conglomerates pay damages and take urgent action to reduce further harm from burning fossil fuels. Illustration: Guardian Design/Getty Images
Via an unprecedented wave of lawsuits, America’s petroleum giants face a reckoning for the devastation caused by fossil fuels”
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