Eastern Black or Prairie swallowtail (Papilio polyxenes asterius)
Ice Age National Scientific Reserve Unit, Wisconsin, USA
2018 8/10 1017aaa
An increasing possibility:
“RUNAWAY TEMPERATURE RISE BY 2026?
March 2022 temperature anomaly
The first image shows a temperature rise for March 2022 of 1.06°C, which is the rise from 1951-1980. The second image shows a temperature rise from 1900 for March 2022 of 1.36°C.
The box on the second image shows that, when including further adjustment, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. A 2.35°C rise is only 0.65°C away from a 3°C rise and a 3°C rise will likely drive humans (and many other species) into extinction.
Note that the March 2022 temperature is suppressed, as we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña. The difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius. The next El Niño may well go hand in hand with a high number of sunspots.
The third image features two trends. The black trend is based on adjusted Jan.1880-Mar.2022 NASA data and shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2027. The blue trend is based on adjusted Apr.2012-Mar.2022 NASA data and better reflects short-term variables such as sunspots and El Niño. The blue trend shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2025, triggered by an emerging El Niño and high sunspots.
Not only could the combination of a strong El Niño with high sunspots suffice to cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025, it could trigger a runaway temperature rise by 2026.
Runaway temperature rise
As temperatures rise, loss of Arctic sea ice and of its latent heat buffer will cause more heating of the atmosphere, while changes to the Jet Stream will cause more extreme weather.
As humans go extinct, transport and industrial activities will stop that currently co-emit sulfur that masks the full extent of the temperature rise. In addition, worldwide forest fires and trash fires could cause huge amounts of black carbon to be emitted.
Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.
For each additional 1°C of warming, the global volume of perennially frozen ground to 3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative to the present volume, and the IPCC adds that these decreases may be underestimates. As permafrost declines, huge amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide get released.
As the ocean heats up, a huge temperature rise could be caused by releases of seafloor methane, further contributing to the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) to get crossed, causing a further rise of 8°C. Altogether, the temperature rise could exceed 18°C.
From:
Runaway temperature rise by 2026?”
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Corporations and governments led us into Climate Breakdown & Extinction.mp4”
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“Methane Feedback Loop Beyond Humans' Ability to Control May Have Begun—NOAA”
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“Long-lasting effects of Global Warming: Atmospheric rivers destabilizing Ice shelves | WION”
2020 7/11 _F2A1626aaa
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