Human Extinction by 2025 possible, with likelihood of extinction increasing dramatically in the years immediately following:
Sam Carana:
โ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ก๐ง
๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ
The concentration of carbon dioxide (COโ) in the atmosphere just broke two records. As the first image shows, COโ was 421.46 in the week starting May 22, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while COโ was 420.99 ppm in May 2022.
Earlier, very high daily and hourly measurements were recorded at Mauna Loa. Surface flask measured COโ well above 422 ppm at Mauna Loa recently.
Carbon dioxide concentration is even higher over the Arctic. One image shows COโ approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska.
Catocala species
Ice Age National Scientific Reserve Unit, Wisconsin, USA
2020 7/31 _F2A4672aaa
To get an idea how much greenhouse gases have risen, a 2021 study points at concentrations of 190 ppm for COโ, 370-375 ppb for methane and 200-245 ppb for nitrous oxide some 18 ka to 21 ka. By comparison, a MetOp image shows a global mean methane level that is more than five times as high, i.e. 1945 ppb at 293 mb on May 25, 2022 am. Another MetOp image shows high methane levels over the Arctic on May 30, 2022 pm, at 742 mb, i.e. much closer to sea level. Furthermore, a NOAA-20 image shows high nitrous oxide levels over the Arctic on June 3, 2022 pm at 1000 mb.
Greenhouse gas levels are very high and there are many further indications that a huge temperature rise could take place over the next few years.
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ฐ๐น๐๐๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ผ๐ณ๐๐น๐ก๐ถรฑ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐ป๐๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐
The trigger for such a huge rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of the upcoming El Niรฑo with a high number of sunspots, which look set to reach maximum impact around July 2025.
We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niรฑa, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This suppresses the temperature rise.
El Niรฑos typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA. A NOAA image shows that the difference in temperature between the bottom of a La Niรฑa and the peak of an El Niรฑo can be more than half a degree Celsius (0.5ยฐC or 0.9ยฐF).
A huge temperature rise looks set to unfold soon, first of all in the Arctic, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niรฑo and a peak in sunspots.
Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. The more sunspot, the more the temperature goes up. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15ยฐC (0.27ยฐF).
The next El Niรฑo looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.
๐ ๐ต๐๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ต๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ฐ
There are many further indications that we're on the brink of a huge temperature rise in the Arctic.
Ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.
As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million kmยฒ.
As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.
Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly COโ, CHโ and NโO).
๐๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ
This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.
Temperatures looks set to rise further, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.
As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature.
Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18ยฐC above pre-industrial.
๐๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฏ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ?
An April 2022 analysis found that the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35ยฐC. When adding 0.65ยฐC for the joint impact of the upcoming El Niรฑo and a peak in sunspots, the rise could be as much as 3ยฐC by 2025.
A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5ยฐC rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3ยฐC rise.
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฐ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly soon, driving humans extinct by as early as in 2025, while temperatures could skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
From the post 'Cataclysmic Alignment' at:โ
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The rich in charge of Americaโs fascist state have no use for the elderly, (or any other demographic that they canโt exploit for surplus profit) therefore they (the elderly) are welcome to die and the brazen social murder doing it will be ignored:
"The cost-of-living crisis for older adults is not going away soon. At times like this, itโs vital that we equip older adults with supports that can help them maintain their financial security โ and their health," says AARP Foundation President Lisa Marsh Ryerson.โ
โAmid high inflation and expiring benefits, older adults face impossible choicesโ
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โWildfire erupts near LA as record-breaking heat scorches Southwest
Temperatures in parts of Southern California could soar to triple digits.โ
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โSouthwest sizzle: Hottest weather yet this year on tapโ
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โfrom Anthony Barca
June 4th, 2022 marks the 18th anniversary of the Killdozer's rampage through Granby, Colorado.
Sit down kids, and let me tell you a tale. A tale about a reasonable man driven to do unreasonable things.
Marvin Heemeyer was a man who owned a muffler shop in Granby, Colorado. The city council ordained to approve the construction of a concrete factory in the lot across from Marvin's shop. In the process, this blocked the only access road to the muffler shop. Marvin petitioned to stop the construction to no avail. He petitioned to construct a new access road, and even bought the heavy machinery to do so himself. Denied.
The concrete factory went up in disregard to the ramifications on Marvin's business. To add insult to injury, the factory construction disconnected the muffler shop from the city sewage lines. An indifferent city government then chose to fine Marvin for this.
His business and livelihood were in ruin. Rather than lie down and die, Marvin chose to fight back. Over the course of a year and a half, Marvin secretly outfitted the bulldozer he bought to save his business with 3-foot thick steel and concrete armor, camera systems, and enclosed bulletproof glass.
On June 4th, 2004 Marvin Heemeyer lowered the armored shell over top of himself, entombing himself inside the Killdozer to make his last stand.
He burst forth from the walls of his muffler shop and straight into the concrete factory that ruined his business. Over the course of the next several hours, Marvin drove his Killdozer through 13 buildings owned by those officials that had wronged him, including the city council building itself.
SWAT teams swarmed the dozer, but it proved immune to small arms fire and even explosives. Another piece of heavy machinery was even brought out to fight the Killdozer, but it too fell to the dozers righteous fury.
In the end, Marvin's Killdozer became trapped in one of the buildings it was built to destroy. Marvin chose to take his life, the only life he took that day.
Today, we celebrate Killdozer Day and Marvin Heemeyer, the last great American folk hero. A man driven to the brink who chose to fight back against an indifferent system.
From notes left behind after his passing:
"I was always willing to be reasonable until I had to be unreasonable. Sometimes reasonable men must do unreasonable things." This is what they are doing to us as I wright this.. We need to do unreasonable things..โ
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Arctic Sea Ice anomalies:
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โKatrina vanden Heuvel on How U.S. Mediaโs โOne-Sided Debateโ on Ukraine Fans the Flames of Warโ
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โYou're Only As Free As You Allow Your World To Beโ
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โWeโve arrived at the proverbial June Cliff in the #Arctic: These trends likely wonโt last, but if they did, these 5+ day average drops would take us to a #BlueOceanEvent๐ฅถ in September.โ
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โMike Hall posts
MMT founder Warren Mosler has shared this piece again on Twitter, from 2014. ๐
Certainly seems an appropriate moment to do so, as Central Banks around the world are again trotting out their interest rate, ass backwards, 'monetary policy' nonsense. Another counter productive piece of macro that just ends up further enriching the rich at the majority citizens expense. (What a surprise... )
".. What I am asserting is that the Fed and the mainstream have it backwards with regard to how interest rates interact with the economy. They have it backwards with regard to both the current health of the economy and inflation, and, therefore, their discussion of appropriate monetary policy is entirely confused and inapplicable.
Furthermore, while I recognize that raising rates supports both aggregate demand and inflation, I am categorically against raising rates for that purpose. Instead, I propose making the zero-rate policy permanent and supporting demand with a full FICA tax suspension. And for a stronger price anchor than todayโs unemployment policy, I propose a federally funded transition job for anyone willing and able to work to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment. Together these proposals support far higher levels of employment and price stability. ... "โ
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โThere is no right time for the Fed to raise rates!โ
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