Common Buckeye (Junonia coenia)
Driftless Area South Central Wisconsin, Dane County USA
2017-09-23 170aaa.jpg
The IPCC has been politicized by big oil for long enough:
THE IPCC KEEPS DOWNPLAYING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HUGE TEMPERATURE RISE
The IPCC keeps downplaying developments that could lead to a huge temperature rise. Such developments include:
• Rising greenhouse levels due to more emissions by people and collapse of the biosphere, and due to more emissions from forest, peatlands and waste fires;
• Collapse of the cryosphere, including decline of permafrost, glaciers and sea ice loss and latent heat buffer loss resulting in more clouds over the Arctic, more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and associated seafloor methane releases;
• Loss of cloud reflectivity and the potential for CO₂e levels to cross the clouds tipping point;
• Loss of the aerosol masking effect;
• More water vapor in the atmosphere in line with rising temperatures and as a result from loss of sea ice.
Altogether, these developments have the potential to raise the temperature by 18.44°C from pre-industrial, as discussed at the extinction page.
One of the most harmful ways in which the IPCC has been downplaying the potential for temperatures to rise is by using a too low Global Warming Potential (GWP) for methane.
In the IPCC special report Climate Change and Land a GWP for methane is used of 28 over 100 years to assess the impact of AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) versus the impact of fossil fuel, etc.
The IPCC seeks to justify its use of a GWP of 28 by focusing on a pulse of methane over 100 years. The impact of such a pulse declines over the years, since the lifetime of methane is only 11.8 years. However, using a pulse to calculate the impact of the total methane in the atmosphere isn't appropriate, because methane doesn't just disappear, but is constantly replenished, or rather is more than replenished. Because of this and because of the potentially huge temperature rise within a few years, it makes more sense to calculate the impact of methane over a short period. Over one year, methane's GWP is 200.
The NOAA image shows a methane monthly average for November 2022 of more than 1950 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
From the post 'There is no Carbon Budget', at:
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Sam Carana:
"THE IPCC HAS BETRAYED THE VERY SCIENTIFIC BASIS IT WAS SUPPOSED TO REFLECT
The IPCC keeps insisting that there was a carbon budget, and this goes hand in hand with peddling the notion that the temperature rise was still less than 1.5°C. As discussed in an earlier analysis, the temperature has been rising for thousands of years and may have crossed the 1.5°C mark long ago.
Furthermore, the Paris Agreement instructs the IPCC to specify pathways to limit the rise to 1.5°C. In its arrogance, the IPCC on the one hand keeps insisting that 1.5°C has not been crossed, while on the other hand bluntly refusing to specify credible pathways to keep it that way. The untenability of this attitude is illustrated by a recent UN news release Climate change: No 'credible pathway' to 1.5C limit, UNEP warns.
Finally, many studies point at ways improvements could be facilitated, such as by support for solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps, biochar, vegan-organic food, air taxis, etc. A recent analysis and an earlier post agree and also conclude that local feebates work best and that it is preferable for decision-making regarding their implementation to be delegated to local communities. The IPCC on the one hand refuses to contemplate policy instruments, yet on the other hand it keeps peddling pet projects pushed by polluters, such as cap-and-trade, nuclear power, bioenergy and BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage).
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and at the recent post Transforming Society.
From the post 'There is no Carbon Budget', at: "
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Brace for impact:
"ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS EMERGENCY
FASTER & FASTER GLOBAL SUICIDE SCENARIO
All far higher than past 800,000 year limit (CO2 40% higher, methane 140%) Abrupt increase obvious 2000 years ago All accelerating higher from 25 years go" #greenhousegases #CO2 #climatechange #globalwarming
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